48 hours ago, a 340-page “Artificial Intelligence Trend Report” by the Internet Queen was released, which immediately caused an earthquake in the circle. After 6 years, Mary Meeker is still not old. The Silicon Valley bigwigs have been sleepless and started studying overnight!
The queen of the Internet and legendary investor Mary Meeker is out again!
Once, as soon as the Queen’s “Internet Trend Report” came out, the entire technology circle had to shake three times. The Silicon Valley tycoons didn’t sleep at all, and they had to study this blockbuster report in the headlines overnight.
After a few years of dormancy, she came back with a 340-page blockbuster report.
This time, she targeted OpenAI, a popular fried chicken in the AI world.
In the circles of various founders and CEOs, this report has exploded in full swing
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In this 340-page report, the word “unprecedented” appears 51 times, and the core point is that this AI-driven change has been comprehensive and irreversible, which is not only a golden age full of opportunities, but also a “critical moment” for the singularity!
The queen returned five years later
Mary Meeker, the famous queen of the Internet.
She was once a member of the Morgan Stanley TMT team. This team is pivotal and once led Netscape’s IPO, which directly started the Internet boom in 1996!
In 1996, she published the first edition of the Internet Trends Report, a 322-page in-depth analysis exploring the potential of the Internet.
Since then, she has published an Internet trend report every year and has foreseen the following trends early on.
1996 → Surge in online population (10-fold increase by 2000)
b. 2000 → Online > print advertising (occurred in 2004)
c. → mobile dominance in 2008 (occurred in 2014)
In 2010, she joined Kleiner Perkins to lead their growth fund and subsequently invested in Facebook, Spotify, Square, Twitter, and Snap.
In 2018, KP Growth Fund was spun off and renamed BOND Capital.
In 2019, she took a break from writing the Internet Trends Report to focus on founding BOND.
Now, after a six-year hiatus, she is back with the 340-page blockbuster “AI Trend Report 2025”!
In this report, there are many golden sentences worth excerpting, such as the following examples.
Just like electricity and other general-purpose technologies of the past, AI and cloud computing data centers represent the next phase of industrialization.
– Brad Smith, vice chairman and president of Microsoft
This time it was different. We can make up for it with scale, and we will find ways to monetize users in the future.
——The three most dangerous sentences in business
Let’s take a look at the core content of this report.
AI reasoning has plummeted to the price of cabbage
Today, the cost of using AI is falling faster than ever.
Today, while the cost of training a top-tier model is as high as $1 billion, soaring 2,400 times in the past eight years, the cost of inference has plummeted by 99.7% in two years.
(The above figures are calculated from the cost per million tokens)
As a result, the rules of the game for the entire industry are being reshaped.
The power consumption per token of the 2024 Blackwell GPU is already 105,000 times lower than the previous generation of Nvidia’s Kepler GPU launched in 2014.
The cost of top AI models has fallen rapidly since then.
Therefore, lightweight models that focus on customized scenarios will be directly exploded compared to giants like OpenAI that have burned huge amounts of money.
At the same time, Google’s TPU and Amazon’s Trainium are also being developed on a large scale for cloud services, and they are progressing rapidly.
In Mary Meeker’s view, these are not fringe projects, but foundational bets.
The myth of OpenAI’s valuation is supported by an Indian brother?
The report also revealed an unexpected fact –
India has become the world’s second largest market for ChatGPT applications!
Yes, ChatGPT’s largest monthly active users are from India, accounting for 13.5%, directly surpassing the 8.9% in the United States.
What’s even more surprising is that India is also DeepSeek’s largest market.
7% of the global users of the DeepSeek mobile app are from India.
One reason is that the low cost per GB of Internet data allows 67% of the population to access the Internet.
Another highlight is that the Indian brother is far more sensitive to price than American users, so if any competitors can break through at low cost, they have a very powerful breakthrough.
China’s model whale swallows the market, and the money-burning model is not working?
At the same time, Chinese models are whaling the market at a very low cost, and the speed is unprecedented.
Today, OpenAI is valued at $300 billion.
But Mary Meeker pointed out sharply: OpenAI’s valuation looks “too expensive” compared to revenue!
After all, OpenAI, xAI and Anthropic, the three top AI companies, have raised $95 billion in funds, directly out of the sky.
However, the combined expected annualized revenue of the three companies is only $12 billion.
Specifically, OpenAI’s annualized revenue is about $9.2 billion, but its valuation has soared to $300 billion, which is 33 times its revenue.
Perplexity’s valuation/revenue multiple reached about 75 times.
Compared to Chinese models, especially the low-cost open-source alternatives brought by DeepSeek, this bubble is already on the verge of being burst.
It can be said that their basic business model is about to be uprooted by Chinese players.
In this regard, Mary Meeker’s comment lit up – “Investors, please only invest what you are willing to lose.”
It’s risky to put all your eggs in one basket, because now everything is going up and it looks like it’s going to be invincible – until one day things suddenly reverse.
Today, Chinese AI models are catching up rapidly, with performance close to the top level of American AI, but the cost is terribly low.
For example, Baidu ERNIE 4.5 Turbo costs only 40% of DeepSeek V3 and 0.2% of GPT-4.5.
This cost-price comparison is really tragic.
Meanwhile, DeepSeek-R1 has achieved a high score of 93% in the MATH Level 5 math benchmark, which is very close to the 95% of OpenAI’s o3-mini model.
At the same time, the installed capacity of industrial robots in China has accounted for 75% of the world.
According to Meta CTO Andrew Bosworth, the global AI situation has developed into an out-and-out new “space race”.
Nowadays, it is recognized that AI reflects the comprehensive strength of various countries and directly determines the influence of future geopolitics.
It can be said that today’s AI model hegemony battle is basically the battlefield between China and the United States.
Statistics from 17 to 24 years show that the number of large-scale AI systems released by China is comparable to that of the United States.
ChatGPT has surged by 800 million users in 17 months, an unprecedented number of users
Of course, no one can deny the glory of ChatGPT before.
After all, it has reached 800 million users in 17 months, a growth rate that has surpassed any technology in human history.
It can be seen that the in-app usage time of ChatGPT has doubled in two years.
Among them, the desktop side is the place where users perform heavy work, and the daily participation time is 18 minutes, which is longer than Duolingo’s 15.5 minutes.
Moreover, Google’s search market share is also being mercilessly swallowed up by OpenAI.
Today, OpenAI’s annual search volume exceeds 365 billion, 5.5 times that of Google. The former took 2 years, while the latter took 11 years.
It can be said that we are already witnessing a great change in the search market.
Today, AI user growth, usage, and capital expenditure are all exploding like never before, reaching the fastest rate of technology penetration in human history.
Over the past 1,000 years, technological advances have driven exponential growth in global GDP.
But will ChatGPT always dominate? The answer is not necessarily.
Perhaps, it will become Google, or be completely forgotten like AltaVista.
The chart shows that DeepSeek and Grok have clearly come behind.
Where will the next billion user market be?
Will the next billion users be AI native users?
Ten years ago, Google launched the Next Billion Users (NBU) project, which is a technology-oriented language and low-connectivity accessibility, allowing technology to embrace the next billion Internet users.
Today, “NBU” is shifting from language-centered to AI-centric.
Low Connectivity → Satellite Internet Connectivity
Browser/App Interface → Voice/Language Interface
Today, 32% of the world’s population, 2.6 billion people, do not have access to the Internet.
And because of the growth of satellite-driven Internet access, the potential for this group of people to access will be greatly increased.
Just like the billion internet users from India, spanning the desktop/PC and broadband eras.
The next billion Internet users will span the application ecosystem and directly enter the agent ecosystem.
At that time, they will go beyond the browser and search bar and use AI directly.
As a result, they completely skip the traditional application layer, and the agent-centric experience will subvert all existing Internet technology levels, and the meaning of the platform will be dissolved and redistributed.
In short, the current AI winner is not the winner forever. Infrastructure is changing dramatically, and so are applications.
The only thing that is known so far is that we are at the beginning of another AI-driven technology supercycle.
Resources:
https://x.com/Rahul_J_Mathur/status/1929115993269534811
https://www.bondcap.com/reports/tai
