At a time when the trendy toy market is surging, Bubble Mart’s Labubu series is becoming popular at an astonishing rate, and its soaring second-hand prices have attracted widespread attention in the market. From celebrities to social media, Labubu seems to have become the hottest trend item of the moment. However, behind this craze, Bubble Mart is facing unprecedented challenges and hidden worries. This article will provide an in-depth analysis of the underlying logic behind Labubu’s popularity, explore the business strategies and potential risks behind it, as well as the opportunities and challenges faced by Bubble Mart in this process.
01
Wang Ning, the owner of Bubble Mart, was found sitting at Stefanie Sun’s concert in Beijing two days ago, which made two groups of people a little unhappy at the same time: those who grabbed Labubu and those who grabbed concert tickets.
This could also be the same group of people. Anyway, you can’t grab it.
I met with several waves of friends this week, all of whom were discussing Labubu without exception. A friend even strongly told me that as long as you grab a headphone bag, you can sell it at least 5 times the profit. Unfortunately, I forgot, a friend later sent me a screenshot, this official price of 99 yuan, the second-hand price has soared to 1089 yuan.
This profit margin is higher than that of selling white powder.
I didn’t plan to participate in Labubu’s rush business, for reasons that will be discussed later. I want to look at it from a product and marketing perspective, what it does right, and how it does it right.
Let me start with a negative example: oriental leaves. I like to drink this tea drink very much recently, and I scanned the code to participate in its “open the lid with surprise” activity, and won a reward of “1 yuan and another bottle”. But this reward requires me to redeem it with a bottle cap.
What does a product manager need to do?
In the process of a product from scratch, it is not easy to do a good job in the role of product manager, in addition to the well-known writing requirements, writing requirements, writing requirements, there are many things to do. The product manager is not what you think, but will only ask you for trouble, make a request:
View details >
Through reward activities, there is nothing wrong with the design of this activity to promote user repurchase. The problem is the landing – the design of the prize redemption rules.
Think about it: how can I hand over the cap without finishing my drink? When I finished drinking my drink, how did I happen to come across a small shop that could be redeemed? Especially in a super city like Beijing, it may take me 10 minutes to cross the road.
As a result, the winning bottle cap is still on my desk. I think it’s very likely that one day my daughter-in-law will throw it away as garbage.
The logic of a product’s success is often not obscure, the key is how to land, whether to land first or feet first.
There is a surprise when the lid on the can is opened, and when the tab is removed, the foot lands on the ground first, because it is useless when it is opened.
There was a surprise on the opening of the cap on the oriental leaves, and when the bottle cap was removed, it landed first, because the mission of the lid was not over yet.
The same strategy used on the same type of product can also have different effects.
Back to Labubu.
Initially it was inconspicuous. In 2018, it was launched as a member of the Bubble Mart THE MONSTERS series, but it couldn’t sell Molly for a long time. Until 2024, Korean girl group member and Thai actress Lisa began to post photos of herself with Labubu on social media, driving its popularity in Thailand and throughout Southeast Asia.
This opens up new ideas for Labubu. The stars of “following the trend” include Rihanna, Dua Lipa and others, and Labubu, which appeared as Hermès ornaments, quickly became popular in Europe, America, Russia, and the Middle East. At the same time, Labubu’s unboxing video emerged on TikTok, and soon, its popularity achieved “export to domestic sales”, and Labubu became Bubble Mart’s most profitable IP in 2024.
Labubu’s tipping point is at least three key factors:
1. The key person, that is, Lisa. Thailand itself has the foundation of trendy toy culture, and this popular Thai female star has a rebellious and cool part in her personality, which is more in line with Labubu’s feeling. After the model of celebrities bringing goods is verified in Thailand and Southeast Asia, it can be quickly replicated in other overseas markets;
2. The location of Bubble Mart’s stores is in a good location in the core business district, and it will even be opened next to LV. This kind of “carrying coffee” made Labubu not obtrusive when it later became a Hermès accessory;
3. Tiktok’s push. The excitement of the blind box itself and the high popularity of Labubu determine that this is a good short video theme.
Three factors, one of which is indispensable. For friends such as MINISO, this set of homework is not easy to copy. The first has a luck component, the second requires a long period of user mental education, and the third is equivalent to assisting, which needs to be built on the basis of the previous two.
If you don’t do it well, it may become “the first to land”.
Of course, this is not just the trouble of friends. Bubble Mart itself may have to worry: where to find the second Labubu? The recent “liquidation” reduction of Bubble Mart’s founding shareholders can be seen as a signal.
02 Silence
I have my own “Labubu”: the “Water Margin Card” of the little raccoon crispy noodles.
In 1998, the CCTV version of the TV series “Water Margin” was a hit, and the following year, the “Water Margin Character Card” launched by Little Raccoon simply became popular on campus. Everyone is busy buying boxes and returning beads, cards have become the protagonists, and instant noodles are just gifts.
▲ The picture comes from the Internet, such as invasion and deletion
The design of the water margin card is very exquisite, it is said that it was also created by a well-known Chinese painter at that time, and I like the one with the leopard head Lin Chong very much, so that I have always had a good impression of the character Lin Chong. Some of these characters are very rare, such as Chao Gai, Song Jiang, Lu Junyi, etc., which are capital to show off among classmates and social currency – they can be exchanged for cards or as gifts between friends.
The popularity of Water Margin Card and Labubu has two basic elements: uncertain rewards and Zeignik effect – this is also the underlying logic of blind box products.
Uncertainty rewards, which is easier to understand. We are always under illusions about unknown “rewards” that stimulate human dopamine secretion. Opening blind boxes, drawing cards, buying lottery tickets, and even gambling are all closely related to the addictive nature of these behaviors.
Even in the relationship between the sexes, there are uncertainty rewards, such as girls receiving WeChat “pick-ups” pursuing boys, and immediately replying and waiting for a while and then returning, the effect is completely different.
The latter will make the boy hold his mobile phone and wait for a while with a smirk. If you see your sweetheart’s reply as a “reward”, then waiting for a reply is a process of enjoying uncertainty, and dopamine will play a role at this moment.
The same is true in business activities, “want, there is”, will make the transaction boring, every “want”, may not be, may have double, or even multiple surprises, will make people more and more addicted.
The Zeignik effect is the other side of this type of product – human beings will have a natural obsession with shortcomings, such as collecting blind boxes only the last one, playing games only the last level, slashing only the last person, etc. The closer you get to success, the stronger this obsession becomes.
China’s ancestors also expounded this concept exquisitely: if you are not afraid of thieves, you are afraid of thieves. Let consumers “worry” is the highest level of merchant sales.
“Uncertainty reward + unforgettable regrets” together constitute the underlying logic of the addiction of blind box products.
But not all trendy blind boxes can become explosive products. It relies more on another factor: a sense of identity.
When I was in elementary school, snacks were relatively scarce, mainly bulk goods in small stores near the school, which could be bought for a few cents. In contrast, the little raccoon sold for 1 yuan a pack at that time was a high consumption. But with the Water Margin Card, you can join the new social circle, have a scarce card, and in the Water Margin Card circle, you will have a higher right to speak, and there will be more card friends who are willing to make friends with you.
“Trendy toys” are never cheap. Its high premium is mainly due to the fact that the “tide” of trendy toys can bring “social value”, “emotional value”, and even “circle status” that cannot be replaced by other goods.
These added values are jointly determined by the design, gameplay, and marketing of goods.
Comparing with the water margin card, Labubu can be called the masterpiece. Limited releases, channel control, and extremely low-probability hidden models are superimposed to greatly enhance its scarcity. This has led it to another identity: financial products.
This is also a big reason why I don’t touch it.
All financial products will be replaced by the next generation of financial products. I don’t want to take the risk of the drumming and flower game hitting my own hands.
03 Change
Any commodity that can obtain a high premium in the second-hand circulation market may become a financial product.
It is not ruled out that many people spend money on Labubu just out of liking and enjoying the emotional value it provides. But an objective fact is that there are many more people who like to make money than people who like trendy toys. The more widely the story of buying Labubu to make money circulates in the market, the more people will chase it, and at the same time, many holders will not sell easily because they may be more valuable in the future.
Financial products have a basic characteristic: risk is directly proportional to return.
You either choose to make a small amount of certainty; Or choose to open a blind box between “turning a bicycle into a motorcycle” and “losing your pants”. The higher the yield Labubu generates, the higher the risk it takes.
Of course, Labubu’s financial attributes are not officially given by Bubble Mart, and I believe that the series of designs it has made for Labubu are to make it a more popular consumer product, rather than really trying to transform into finance.
However, when Labubu transcends the trendy attributes and becomes a product of national concern, Bubble Mart needs to be extra careful to avoid being backlashed.
The recent Labubu is already a bit like the Clivia of 40 years ago.
It was first popular in Changchun, and later became popular all over the northeast, and even affected the whole country. At that time, Li Maolin, a celebrity in Changchun’s orchid breeding industry, exchanged two pots of clivia raised on his balcony for imported household appliances worth about 5,000 yuan, which was equivalent to his 10-year salary. Not long after, a Hong Kong merchant went to Changchun again, wanting to exchange a Crown car worth 90,000 yuan for a pot of Clivia.
The point is that he was also rejected. Because the Crown sedan is a standardized product on the assembly line, and that pot of Clivia is unique.
Cross talk master Hou Baolin wrote these into jokes, ridiculing Changchun City for having three famous products: cars, movies and Clivia.
Does Clivia have aesthetic value? There definitely is. But apparently that’s not the point.
In order to grab Labubu, today’s young people will fight in Bubble Mart stores, and the Northeast people 40 years ago were even more tough. In 1984 alone, there were 127 theft and robbery crimes caused by Clivia, and a new high in the first half of the following year, reaching 243 in five months. Even, a prosecutor in Anshan took his brother fully armed to rob, and the target was a pot of Clivia.
The only thing that can make humans so crazy is the desire for wealth.
Why did Clivia start to catch fire in the Northeast? Part of the reason may be that Northeast China is undergoing the transformation of state-owned enterprises. At that time, the distant Shenzhen Special Economic Zone had begun to tell the story of spring, but the spring breeze had not yet melted the ice of the black soil. Northeastern people who were pushed out of their comfort zones looked around and could only follow the trend and seize Clivia’s dream of making a fortune.
Labubu, which has become popular in the post-epidemic era, probably also assumes some similar functions.
Back then, after the tide of Clivia receded, many people bought flowers at high prices were smashed in their hands, and there was really only ornamental value left. Similar stories were actually staged in categories such as stamps and sneakers.
A generation has a generation of Labubu.
Wang Ning, who was photographed at Stefanie Sun’s concert, looked ordinary in the crowd. But in fact, as Bubble Mart’s stock price soared, it has risen more than 10 times compared to the low point in March 2024. Recently, he became the new richest man in Henan with a value of 146.7 billion yuan. Netizens ridiculed: What is your name Wang Ning, your name is King Ning! The last boss who was so sought after by shareholders was Lei Jun.
Compared with the highlight moments, people’s performance in the trough period may be more real.
▲ The picture comes from the Internet, such as invasion and deletion
Wang Ning participated in “Maker China” in 2016. At that time, Bubble Mart was still in a state where no one cared about it, and investors questioned that the threshold for this business was too low. Wang Ning, who does not have the aura of a prestigious school, does not bare on the stage, but his answer is logically clear:
“First of all, I think this threshold is not low at all.”
“We open stores in the best shopping malls and the best locations, such as Taikoo Li Sanlitun and Taikoo Li Chengdu. These locations are not open with money, such as next to LV, we need to pass the dual authentication of LV and shopping malls. ”
“These world’s most famous artists are scarce resources, and these IPs are all signed exclusively and exclusively produced.”
What impressed me even more was his state at that time. When the enterprise is at a low point, it can still strengthen its belief and go at its own pace in the voice of doubt, which has surpassed more than 90% of entrepreneurs.
