On a weekend in July, the streets and alleys of big cities are filled with the aroma of milk tea. After experiencing the milk tea discount war, the subsidy war of takeaway platforms has escalated again, and platforms such as Meituan takeaway and Taobao flash sale have launched value-for-money promotions such as “0 yuan purchase” and “38 minus 18.8”, attracting the attention of consumers. This article will delve into the fierce competition behind the takeaway subsidy war and the possible future development trends.
01 Weekend “takeaway war”, almost drinking migrant workers out of diabetes?
After experiencing the last “milk tea crazy discount” war, the recent takeaway war has not stopped, but has been escalating and gradually heating up.
Recently, when the public has become familiar with the 8 yuan milk tea full discount coupon, “0 yuan purchase” has become the new normal, and many people say that they dream back to the time when the takeaway platform first emerged.
On the evening of July 11, the takeaway “Crazy Saturday” was staged again, and Meituan Takeaway posted on Weibo saying: “Saturday, happiness continues.” ”
So the weekend takeaway war officially started, Meituan’s “0 yuan purchase” vs. Taobao flash sale “38 minus 18.8”.
When users wake up early in the morning and open the Meituan APP, they will pop up the promotional page of “0 yuan takeaway”. After clicking to receive the coupon, you can receive drink exchange coupons from merchants such as Luckin Coffee, Mixue Bingcheng, and Shanghai Auntie. If you pick it up at the store, the order can be taken away for 0 yuan without paying any fees, and if you choose takeaway delivery, you need to pay a certain delivery fee, usually the price does not exceed 5 yuan. Meituan has launched activities such as “starting from 1 cent” to buy milk tea takeaway, as well as “iced explosive products starting from 1 cent” and “big brands starting from 1.68 yuan”. A cup of Aunt Shanghai’s jasmine milk green medium cup on the page only costs 1 cent.
Taobao flash sale was not idle, playing the slogan of “Super Saturday”, releasing a large coupon package of 188 yuan, declaring that “5 meals a day I am all-inclusive”. Many users have basically gotten a number of large coupons of “18.8 minus 18.8” and “18.8 minus 28.8”.
What does a product manager need to do?
In the process of a product from scratch, it is not easy to do a good job in the role of product manager, in addition to the well-known writing requirements, writing requirements, writing requirements, there are many things to do. The product manager is not what you think, but will only ask you for trouble, make a request:
View details >
According to Jiemian News, early in the morning of July 12, a delivery man introduced that due to the release of large discount coupons by Taobao flash sale, merchants were full of orders from the morning, and the meal time was much slower than usual.
Soon, the entry “takeaway war” has been ranked first in the hot search on Weibo, and “Taobao flash sale” and “Meituan free order” have also entered the top 10 hot searches.
On July 12, a number of food delivery platforms upgraded their subsidy activities.
Taobao Flash Sale officially announced early on the morning of the 12th that “eat something good on Saturday, ‘Super Saturday’ 188 yuan coupon package, five meals I will be all-inclusive”. Taobao flash sale issued a number of large coupons with varying strengths, and the event homepage shows: big cards start from 1.9 yuan, 1 piece is free.
JD.com Takeaway posted: “The fixed price is 16.18! 100,000 servings per night! JD Takeaway invites users across the country to eat quality crayfish”.
After clicking on it, you will receive a zero yuan takeaway voucher issued by the system, including delivery and pick-up. Among them, Luckin Coffee, Mixue Bingcheng, Gu Ming, etc. are high-frequency brands that appear in “0 yuan purchase”.
At about 10 a.m. on the 12th, the dispatch number of many tea shops had reached four digits, and if the order was placed at that time, it would take more than 1 hour.
A Luckin employee revealed to the media that since the free coupon is limited to some categories, the store has prepared and prepared materials in advance. Not only free milk tea, but also many chain catering brands such as Babi steamed buns and Manling porridge shop have also become the target of “0 yuan purchase”.
02 Carnival of all living beings, the undercurrent under the war
The takeaway subsidy war in 2025 actually began in April.
On April 11, JD Takeaway announced the launch of “10 billion subsidies”. On April 30, Ele.me announced the official opening of the first wave of “hunger supplement of more than 10 billion” and launched the “more than 10 billion” search entrance.
Three months later, the subsidies of large factories became more aggressive. On July 2, Taobao Flash Sale announced that it would launch a subsidy plan of up to 50 billion yuan, which will directly subsidize consumers and merchants in the next 12 months, and bring discounts by issuing large red envelopes, free single cards, and official subsidies for fixed-price goods.
On July 7, Taobao Flash Sale and Ele.me jointly announced that the number of daily orders on Taobao Flash Sale exceeded 80 million, including more than 13 million non-catering orders and more than 200 million daily active users on Taobao Flash Sale.
Compared with the takeaway subsidy war in April, Meituan is also more high-profile and aggressive, pushing a large number of coupons to users, and also releasing the peak number of daily orders on the intranet twice in the evening.
As of 22:54 on July 5, Meituan’s instant retail orders on the same day have exceeded 120 million, of which more than 100 million catering orders have exceeded. Wang Xing once made it clear that Meituan will win “at all costs” and try its best to defend its market share.
JD.com is not far behind. On July 8, JD Takeaway announced that it would once again invest more than 10 billion yuan to support more category benchmark brands, and nearly 200 catering brands have sold more than one million on JD Takeaway in the past 4 months.
QuestMobile data shows that Taobao, JD.com, and Meituan App, which have had a month-on-month decline in the number of active users in the previous two months, have all shown a high proportion of year-on-year and month-on-month growth since March this year, especially JD.com, where the number of active users from April to June has reached double digits year-on-year.
At present, it seems that the big factories have shown a lot of bright battle reports. So the question is, who can have the last laugh in this takeaway war?
Goldman Sachs had predicted three outcomes. The first ending is that Meituan successfully defended the ring, which is Goldman Sachs’ benchmark prediction and the most probable scenario. Meituan won this takeaway war. According to the number of orders, the market share of takeaway is 55% of Meituan, 35% of Ele.me, and 10% of JD.com.
The second ending is the duopoly of Alibaba Meituan. In the second ending, Alibaba will come from behind and form a double strong pattern with Meituan. The takeaway market share is 45% for Meituan, 45% for Ele.me, and 10% for JD.com. In the end, Meituan’s profits will decline further, and Ele.me’s short-term losses will have a chance to break even in the long term, and it will be difficult for JD.com to form a scale effect in the competition.
The third ending is a three-legged standing, JD.com broke through the third ending, JD.com finally broke through successfully and was on the table. In terms of order volume, Meituan accounted for 50% of the takeaway market share, Ele.me accounted for 30%, and JD.com accounted for 20%.
JD.com was the first to start the takeaway war, but I didn’t expect that Alibaba would push Ele.me to join the battlefield again, attracting strong opponents.
It is uncertain which outcome will be in the end, but what is certain is that the takeaway war between Meituan, JD.com, and Alibaba has burned a lot of money, and it will definitely have a certain impact on the performance and profits of the three companies in the future.
Goldman Sachs predicts that in 2025Q2 alone, the investment of these three companies in the field of food delivery will reach 25 billion yuan, and in the 12 months from 202507 to 202606, Ele.me’s food delivery business will lose 41 billion yuan, JD.com will lose 26 billion yuan, and Meituan’s EBIT will decrease by 25 billion yuan.
03 How long can the takeaway war last?
Many people want to know, how long can the takeaway wool war last?
At least what is in front of us at the moment means a lot of burden for merchants. The owner of a hamburger restaurant said helplessly: “The single profit is thin, but the order volume has doubled, and it can only make small profits and sell quickly.” In terms of profits, although sales are more likely to explode, it is still unknown whether it can participate in the platform’s subsidy war for a long time.
Riders undoubtedly exchange their sweat and blood for high salaries. Chengdu rider Xiaoshi sent 200 orders in a single day, earning more than 1,000 orders, but at the cost of working continuously for 16 hours in high temperatures, high-intensity distribution under high temperatures caused health concerns.
For consumers, wool and dark pits coexist. It seems that it is indeed profitable, and the wool harvester saves 100 yuan with 8 platform accounts, but some users have found that many of the 0 yuan coupon optional products on some platforms are limited to low-priced drinks below 10 yuan. Some merchants were even exposed to “clearing inventory” and “reducing quality”.
The official attitude towards this is also more important. In May, the State Administration for Market Regulation has interviewed the platform, requiring relevant platform enterprises to strictly abide by the “E-commerce Law of the People’s Republic of China”, “Anti-Unfair Competition Law of the People’s Republic of China”, “Food Safety Law of the People’s Republic of China” and other laws and regulations, strictly implement the main responsibility, take the initiative to fulfill social responsibilities, strengthen internal management, legally standardize operations, compete fairly and orderly, jointly create a good market environment, and effectively safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of consumers, operators on the platform and takeaway riders. Promote the standardized, healthy and orderly development of the platform economy.
In fact, the official attitude also shows a signal to a certain extent: the competition of the platform is too impatient, once the rapid expansion of the order scale is too pursued, and the merchants are forced to lower prices, and the qualifications and conditions of new merchants are neglected, it is easy to cause chaos.
I have to say that in the current competitive landscape of the instant retail market, it is unknown how long the subsidy will last, but what can go on for a long time is the competition for differentiated service capabilities.
For example, Taobao flash sale entrance + Ele.me supply chain, using AI to optimize distribution and other actions, so that Alibaba users can enjoy a richer consumption ecology and reduce the cost of choice, Meituan relies on the whole chain of local life to create a “raccoon canteen”, JD.com strengthens logistics integration, and the core of competition turns to resource integration efficiency.
In short, the takeaway war has gone from the surface competition of user subsidies to the three-dimensional game of rider protection, algorithm transparency, and instant retail ecology. In the long run, it is necessary to solve the triangular dilemma of “low price dependence on users, thin profits for merchants, and high load for riders” in order to achieve sustainable growth.
The war in the name of “instant retail” by large factories has exposed the ambitions of China’s retail industry during the transition period. The market’s valuation model reveals a cruel reality that today’s burning money can only be called a strategy when the overall scale of instant retail breaks through a higher level.
Red, yellow and blue war, who are you optimistic about?
