Instant retail cuts into the user path with “minute delivery” and reconstructs the platform rhythm with “early response”, which is no longer an edge supplement, but a pre-option in the order attribution game. 618, whether the structure of the Double 11 promotion node is really loose. For these big promotions, the changes may have just begun.
1. User mind migration: instant retail competition for “current orders”
At 10 o’clock last Friday night, Chen Yifan finished working overtime and slid Taobao on the subway before going home. Her mobile phone membrane is cracked, and she habitually opens various platforms to see if 618 has an active price. But when she searched, she found that a JD.com “second delivery” channel popped up under the search bar. Click in and take a look, and the page shows that these goods are from nearby supermarkets, and they are delivered in 30 minutes at the earliest.
She flipped through it and found that a cleanser she commonly used was on sale, and the price was a few yuan cheaper than usual, without stacking coupons or making up orders, and it was marked as “rider direct”. She hesitated for a few seconds, then clicked on Taobao to compare the price, and found that although it was a little cheaper, the delivery time was written as “expected to be delivered tomorrow”. She thought about it and decided to try to be quick and not to save money.
At the same time, college student Liu Kexin ordered milk tea on the Ele.me App, bought toothpaste, cotton pads and facial cleanser, and made up a “hunger red envelope”. All from nearby daily chemical chains and delivered to the dormitory downstairs in 30 minutes.
Such orders are quietly increasing. For more and more people, “if you can be faster, be faster”, even if it is a little more expensive. Whether it is JD.com’s second delivery, Meituan flash sale, or Taobao hourly delivery, “30-minute delivery” is no longer just a service ability, but has begun to become a plus that affects the decision to place an order.
2. The normal subsidy has failed: platforms are looking for a “second battlefield”
Since Taobao Double 11 in 2009 shouted “50% off the whole site, free shipping nationwide”, the Double 11 e-commerce promotion has officially become the anchor point of the retail rhythm throughout the year.
The following year, JD.com upgraded its store celebration “June 18” to a platform-level event for the first time, officially establishing the strategic position of “618”, a mid-year node.
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10 years later, Pinduoduo launched a “10 billion subsidy”, greatly simplifying the user path by dropping the price at a fixed price. JD.com immediately launched a special session of the same name during the 618 period, focusing on the high-end customer single category of 3C home appliances; Tmall tried to form a complete link of “official instant discount + cross-store full discount + venue coupon” on Double 11.
In 2024, Douyin will begin to combine subsidies with content planting through methods such as “low prices on the whole network” and “flash sales in the live broadcast room”, once again lowering the threshold for user participation.
The price war has been rolled up, and it is difficult for traditional subsidies to come up with new tricks. What should be attractive to the e-commerce shopping festival?
In these two days, Chen Yifan planned to buy a bottle of cleanser to give away. She opened Taobao search keywords, and the first thing she saw was the official flagship store, with an event price of nearly 80 yuan and delivery expected to be in 1–2 days.
Continuing to decline, she found that the same model in Tmall Supermarket was priced at 58 yuan, marked with “next-day delivery”; In the “Ten Billion Subsidy” area, the lowest unit price of the same product is close to 48 yuan, but the page prompts that it is a pre-sale status and is expected to be delivered within 3 days.
She went to JD.com, and the homepage showed a global shopping store, which was shipped to a bonded warehouse and was expected to be delivered within 48 hours. Then she entered the “JD Second Delivery” channel and found that nearby daily chemical chains (such as KKV and Watsons) also put this product on the shelves, and the price was slightly higher, but the page said “Shipped from nearby stores, delivered in 30 minutes at the earliest”.
On Pinduoduo, she also found the same product. The platform offers three paths:
- The price of the official flagship store is similar to Taobao;
- The 10 billion subsidy special session provides direct drop styles, which can be placed without consolidation, and the page is marked as pre-sale delivery;
- The order entry attracts users to join the group at the lowest price, but it does not necessarily support “buy now”.
During the whole price comparison process, she saw multiple prices, delivery channels and delivery times of the same product on different platforms.
She finally chose the in-store version that could be delivered within 30 minutes.
3. Pre-local fulfillment: Each platform ignited the 618 distribution war in advance
This decision is not unique. In high-frequency consumer goods such as cleanser, paper towels, toothpaste, and laundry detergent, instant retail has shown obvious advantages in user experience by virtue of its delivery speed and store network.
This advantage also promotes the platforms to collectively complete the “pre-layout” in May.
Taobao originally planned to launch the “flash sale” channel during the 618 period, but finally officially opened on April 29, and embedded fulfillment labels such as “1 hour delivery” and “delivery to nearby stores” on the homepage and search page to guide users to cut into the local retail path;
JD.com launched the “Second Delivery” channel on May 10, integrating “hourly purchase” and “home” resources, highlighting brand authenticity, local spot, and delivery capabilities within 30 minutes, and incorporating them into the homepage of the main site in the form of channels;
On May 6, Meituan fired the first shot of 618 warm-up by the “Meituan Buying Medicine” channel, and simultaneously launched the “Brand Flash Sale Partner Plan” to guide daily necessities, beauty, food and other categories to enter the main battlefield with a “flash sale” mechanism, and the channel and the user side are pushed synchronously.
With the official launch of Meituan’s flash sale 618 in the early morning of May 28, the wine category ushered in a peak in transactions. Driven by this, the order volume of many local wine chain stores ushered in explosive growth. The instant retail sales of the Zhejiang wine chain brand Jiujiaju exceeded 11 million on the first day, a record high. Jiulai, the head liquor dealer, also said that the sales increase brought by Meituan’s flash sale 618 has exceeded last year’s Spring Festival, saying that liquor has also felt the power of 618 for the first time. It is understood that Qianxi Famous Liquor Store’s store in Haidian, Beijing, today’s instant retail orders increased by about 86 times compared with the average daily order.
In this round of operation, the pace of instant retail has been unified and advanced, and the platform no longer regards it as a “post-holiday supplement”, but the main drainage force of the big promotion skirmish.
The appearance of instant retail has been significantly advanced, especially in the daily necessities scene, the speed of delivery has become not only a service capability, but also a means for the platform to compete for orders outside the fierce price war.
Fourth, the scene ability is limited: It is difficult for instant retail to settle the whole scene
Although the pace of instant retail in the 618 warm-up is significantly advanced, it is not suitable for all product categories. Its circle of competence still has boundaries.
The highest participation is for high-frequency, light decision-making, and highly standardized daily necessities – such as cleanser, paper towels, toothpaste, laundry detergent, beverages, and ready-to-eat snacks. These product SKUs are relatively clear, users have a high tolerance for brand choice, and their usage needs are immediately clear, which is very suitable for the model of local inventory + minute-level fulfillment.
In some 3C products with clear options and intensive offline channels, some head models are also being included in the service radius by instant retail. For example, the mainstream models of Apple and Huawei achieve “store delivery and hourly delivery” through brand-authorized stores or JD.com’s self-operated warehouses, and also take on part of the “second order” demand during the shopping festival.
For large furniture and customized goods, although there are merchants testing the waters (such as office chairs and household storage products), on the whole, it is still an area that is difficult to cover efficiently for instant retail due to problems such as high performance costs, complex installation services, and long customer unit price payback cycle.
The really weakest category is fashion clothing.
Different from the logic of “buy when you need it”, the decision-making of fashion products is highly dependent on perceptual experience, version aesthetics and scene matching, users have low tolerance for size and color, high return rate, and it is difficult for the platform to support the pre-hoarding of complex SKUs on the local fulfillment side.
At present, only basic loungewear, thermal underwear and other functional clothing can participate on a small scale in the form of supermarket channels.
This also means that the participation boundaries of instant retail are becoming clear – it can efficiently cover standardized and high-frequency consumption scenarios, but in the face of categories with complex SKUs and dominated by emotional decision-making, it is far from forming a replicable fulfillment model.
It is not an alternative to the big promotion, nor can it undertake all user needs;
However, in categories such as daily necessities and replenishment consumption, which were originally “not part of the big promotion”, it is gradually taking over the decision-making entrance and cutting into the distribution structure of order ownership.
The platform may not expect it to support the audience, but it has begun to bet that it can win the first order of some users before 618.
5. Redefine node value: 618 is becoming the epitome of the rhythm of the whole year
In this round of 618 warm-up, an obvious consensus is that the time for the platform to make moves has become earlier.
Subsidies are launched early, flash sales are launched in advance, and minute-level delivery has become the focus of the page; Users have also completed multiple rounds of “handy orders” before the official start of the promotion, and are no longer obsessed with “waiting until the day of 618”.
Behind this, there are changes in platform strategies and the migration of user habits.
In the past, the big promotion was a “concentrated outbreak” compressed to a single point: squatting time, fighting for speed, and winning by the lowest price.
Now, the platform’s way of playing is more like arming in advance and grabbing the “starting point of user decision-making” – whoever can be seen first may win that order.
The frequent appearance of instant retail is also part of this structural adjustment: it does not undertake the finale of the main battlefield, but it cuts into the mentality of “unplanned purchase” and intercepts some orders in advance from the rhythm.
Does this mean that the meaning of 618 is being diluted?
Not necessarily.
Perhaps it has only changed from a “single-day outbreak” to an “annual rhythm anchor”: undertaking a complete set of cycle beats from water storage, drainage to mental operation. It is still important, but it is no longer focused on a single surprise moment, but throughout the longer path design.
The big sale is no longer just for that day.
The competition between platforms is no longer just about who makes the most profits and shouts the loudest, but about who can be embedded in the user’s life earlier and more times.
