For a long time, the field of cross-border e-commerce has been dominated by southern cities, but in recent years, the rise of northern cities in the field of cross-border e-commerce has been rapid. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the reasons for the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce in northern cities, including policy support, logistics network upgrades, industrial belt advantages, and market positioning differentiation, and discusses the possibility of complementary development of cross-border e-commerce between the north and south, revealing the profound changes that are taking place in China’s cross-border e-commerce landscape.
For a long time, the economic pattern seems to be strong in the south and weak in the north, and the same is true in the field of cross-border e-commerce.
In the domestic cross-border e-commerce camp, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan, Zhuhai, Ningbo, Shantou, Yiwu …… A number of southern cities dominate. According to the data, from 2015 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of cross-border e-commerce in Guangdong Province alone was as high as 71.4%, contributing more than 1/3 of the country’s share.
But today, the territory of cross-border e-commerce across the country is gradually moving north.
Last year, some industrial belts in central China began to rise relying on cross-border e-commerce, such as Wuhan’s electronic technology, and in 2024, the scale of Wuhan’s optoelectronic information industry (including software) reached 756.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. Among them, the output value of electronic information manufacturing was 404.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8% year-on-year, ranking first in the city’s industrial industries.
Coincidentally, Ezhou, Qinhuangdao, Qingdao, Baoding, Kaifeng, Xinxiang, and Erenhot…… According to public information, in 2024, the import and export volume of cross-border e-commerce in Ezhou will surge by 566% year-on-year; From January to August 2024, the total import and export volume of cross-border e-commerce in Yanbian Prefecture reached 3.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 83.6%.
In addition, the entire Shandong Province has reached 14,000 enterprises related to “cross-border e-commerce”, from south to north, which of course does not imply that northern cities will replace the dominance of South China, but once the north-south market is coordinated, the entire cross-border e-commerce track may have a new story.
What does a product manager need to do?
In the process of a product from scratch, it is not easy to do a good job in the role of product manager, in addition to the well-known writing requirements, writing requirements, writing requirements, there are many things to do. The product manager is not what you think, but will only ask you for trouble, make a request:
View details >
The cross-border e-commerce gene in the north has begun to “collective awakening”
Preliminary statistics show that in 2024, our country’s cross-border e-commerce imports and exports will be 2.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with more than 1,000 cross-border e-commerce industrial parks in various regions, more than 2,500 overseas warehouses and an area of more than 30 million square meters. Why do cross-border e-commerce companies “move north”, because compared with Guangdong, Fujian, and Shenzhen, which are already overcrowded, the north is not so crowded.
According to the data, there are more than 4 million employees in cross-border e-commerce in Shenzhen alone, more than 800,000 companies, and 290,000 small and medium-sized sellers. At the same time, the monitoring of “Dianshubao” shows that there will be 50 large-scale enterprises in the field of cross-border e-commerce in 2024, most of which are located in Guangdong, Fujian and Zhejiang.
On the other hand, the slightly wide north and inland areas of the track gradually highlight the advantages of “cross-border”.
The first is the “policy siphon” effect. For example, as early as 2016, Qingdao was included in the “cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zone”, Tianyancha data shows that in the past two years, as many as 41.3% of cross-border enterprises have taken Qingdao as the first stop of “going north”, and up to now, there are more than 300 enterprises in Qingdao cross-border e-commerce industrial park.
At present, our country has set up 165 cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones, achieving full coverage of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, and the enthusiasm of various cities for cross-border e-commerce has also made the once unbalanced resources have a trend of reallocation, such as Hengyang (Hunan) rewarded cross-border e-commerce leading enterprises with a maximum reward of 1 million yuan, which once attracted more than 80 cross-border e-commerce enterprises.
Secondly, with the increasing growth of cross-border e-commerce, northern cities have repeatedly upgraded their logistics networks, especially the four provinces of mountains and rivers north of the Yangtze River (Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, and Hebei), which have become ideal destinations for cross-border e-commerce to move north under the background of relatively low production costs, abundant labor resources, and improving transportation infrastructure.
In 2024, Hebei’s foreign trade containers will increase by 49% year-on-year; Qingdao Port has 14 foreign trade routes, and Jiaodong International Airport has added all-cargo aircraft routes to Frankfurt, Toronto and New York; Zhengzhou has normalized the operation of cross-border e-commerce charter flights to Belgium, Los Angeles, and New York, and Zhengzhou operates 29 all-cargo airlines and 49 all-cargo routes.
Of course, cross-border e-commerce also depends on the industrial belt behind it.
Shandong expects that by 2025, the province will build 20 cross-border e-commerce characteristic industrial belts, of which Qingdao has already formed 10 industrial clusters of more than 100 million US dollars such as children’s clothing, wigs, and outdoor products. Globally, the reputation of manufacturing in our country’s north has always been remarkable, and in 2024, sellers in the north will have an amazing sales growth rate in the three core markets of eBay: the United States, the United Kingdom, and Germany.
Finally, it may be the main reason for the growing atmosphere of cross-border e-commerce in the north.
In the first half of 2024, our country’s cross-border e-commerce exports to the United States accounted for 34.2%, the United Kingdom accounted for 8.1%, Germany accounted for 6.2%, and France accounted for 4.5%. Among them, the United States has always accounted for the highest proportion, but with the ups and downs of the tariff turmoil in the past two years, it is not a one-day effort to build overseas positions and build supply chains, which has led cross-border players to start looking at Japan and South Korea, which are closer to the north, and have achieved good results.
As of March 2024, Temu has reached 8.296 million users in South Korea, an increase of 42.8% year-on-year in February, and AliExpress has also been downloaded more than 6 million times.
During the same time period, Temu’s GMV in Japan in 2024 may reach 400 billion yen, and by July 2025, it may quickly reach the level of Yahoo Retail and Mercari at 40%, and the Asian consumer circle is becoming the first choice for the track. On the merchant side, Ozon, known as the “Russian Amazon”, has more than 100,000 Chinese sellers on this platform, accounting for 20%.
In the location radiation, there are various signs that the genetic outbreak of cross-border e-commerce in the north is by no means accidental.
Is it “complementary” or replaced?
It needs to be clear that the “northward migration” of domestic cross-border e-commerce actually wants the entire track to show a “deep complementarity” between the north and south, rather than simply replacing it. According to the data, there are currently as many as 66 cross-border e-commerce platforms in the world, and in 2024, our country will still rank second in the global cross-border e-commerce export ranking with US$180.7 billion.
The first place is the United States, with an annual cross-border e-commerce export volume of $684.5 billion.
In the gap between half hot and half crisis, the domestic cross-border e-commerce industry urgently needs to form a complete ecology of “north and south complementarity”, and fortunately, in terms of industrial base, logistics network, and market positioning…… Under the influence of multiple factors, there is a certain “complementary” logic in the dislocation competition between southern cities and northern cities.
Let’s look at the industrial base first.
For a long time, the south has mature manufacturing clusters and Internet genes, so it has formed a cross-border e-commerce ecology dominated by 3C digital, clothing and beauty, and smart home, and the data shows that up to 60% of our country’s cross-border e-commerce exports of 3C products come from the Pearl River Delta and 30% come from the Yangtze River Delta.
In contrast, in the north, in the atmosphere of traditional manufacturing, this area seems to be more heavy on equipment, special agricultural products, home textiles and accessories……
For example, Shandong’s auto parts and heavy industry equipment, Henan’s office furniture and machinery manufacturing, and Hebei’s agricultural machinery and equipment are particularly prominent on eBay. In 2024, Shandong construction machinery manufacturers will increase their excavator sales on the eBay platform by 700% year-on-year, while welding machines and engraving machines will also double their sales.
In terms of logistics network.
According to research reports, cross-border logistics costs typically account for 20% – 30% of the total cost of goods, and in some cases even higher. Since the outbreak of the tariff turmoil, domestic cross-border e-commerce players have fallen into logistics anxiety, not only trying to transfer the supply chain, but also overseas warehouses.
However, from a realistic point of view, supply chain transfer involves labor, professional technology, and brand building, and it is difficult to achieve it overnight in a short period of time.
Overseas warehouses also cannot give domestic merchants peace of mind.
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, as early as 2020, the number of cross-border e-commerce overseas warehouses exceeded 1,800, with a year-on-year growth rate of 80% and an area of more than 12 million square meters. With the end of the first outbreak period, overseas warehouses entered the destocking stage. According to the data, in 2022, 50% of the overseas positions selected by Zheshang Securities will have flat or declining revenue year-on-year.
By 2024, data from Zheshang Securities shows that in the overseas warehouse supply market, smaller service providers account for the majority, and 54% of service providers with revenue of less than 50 million. In other words, most of the players in the overseas warehouse market are very small, and it is not known how much they can accommodate.
If it starts from the domestic logistics network and under the premise of developing the global consumer market, the complementary pattern between the north and the south will be more obvious. In southern cities, logistics and transportation to European and American markets are very mature, while in the north, cross-border e-commerce along Erenhot (China-Mongolia border) and Dandong (China-North Korea border) cannot be underestimated.
Last year, a report by NetEase News showed that compared with ocean transportation to the United States, the voyage from Qingdao to Japan is significantly shorter, specifically, it may take up to 1 month to ship goods to the United States, while it only takes 10 days to arrive in Japan, from the perspective of capital turnover, the United States is about 3-4 months, and Japan is only 1 month.
Finally, market positioning, to this day, the south has accumulated a lot of brand operation experience in the cross-border e-commerce ecology, focusing more on the branding path, while the north is developing new markets while forming product effects. The cross-penetration of the two at different market levels may be the state that the entire cross-border e-commerce track wants the most.
What should we do next, global business?
It is undeniable that the growth of cross-border e-commerce is directly related to the global environment.
In 1938, the United States implemented a small duty-free policy to facilitate tourists to bring souvenirs into the country (the limit is $5), and later, after many adjustments, it was increased to $800 by 2016, and the T86 customs clearance model was equipped to simplify the process, and the number of applications for “small exemptions” in the United States surged from 139 million to 1.4 billion from 2015 to 2024.
As of now, the global e-commerce market is expected to reach $6.3 trillion, of which cross-border e-commerce accounts for 22%, however, more than half of the world’s enterprises believe that the operating environment of cross-border e-commerce is relatively difficult, especially in terms of customs clearance, tariffs, supply chain costs and return processing.
Leading domestic cross-border merchants have been showing fatigue since last year.
It is reported that in the 2024 “Top 10 Overseas E-commerce Revenue Rankings for Cross-border Sales”, Saiwei Times, Huakai Yibai, Zhiou Technology, Lege Co., Ltd., and Santai Co., Ltd. all showed an increase in revenue, but the net profit fell by more than 20%, and the gross profit margin of 90% of the cross-border e-commerce export companies in the ranking was declining.
In 2025, as the “cost of compliance” in the European and American markets fluctuates, it is crucial what to do next for global business.
Today, shifting consumer markets, diversifying corporate risks, and expanding future share seem to be key parts.
According to Statista’s data, among the 12 countries with a compound annual growth rate of retail e-commerce sales from 2024 to 2029 that exceeds the global average growth rate (9.49%), some regions in Latin America, Central Asia, Africa and Southeast Asia are on the list. Among them, Latin America has the largest number of countries on the list, including Brazil, Mexico and Argentina.
Secondly, cost-effectiveness is a great tool in any consumer environment.
From April 9 to May, the prices of nearly 1,000 products on Amazon’s website have risen significantly, covering multiple categories such as clothing, household goods, electronics and toys, with an average price increase of nearly 30%.
It is reported that the price of a power bank has risen directly from $110 to $135, an increase of more than 20%.
In contrast, players who are still taking the cost-effective route are very popular with consumers.
For example, Dunhuang.com, which is out of the circle this year because of the tariff turmoil, has seen significant growth in GMV in multiple categories on the platform since April, including a 195% increase in new buyers of outdoor equipment, an increase of nearly 130% in pet supplies, a surge of 671% in hair products, a 962% increase in home appliances, a 601% jump in security, and a 318% increase in the health and beauty category.
However, whether today’s cross-border merchants can still afford the price war is another matter. In 2024, the decline in net profit and shrinkage in gross profit margin of leading cross-border sellers have a lot to do with the increase in their costs, especially advertising and marketing expenditure and warehousing costs.
In 2024, the advertising expenses of Santai shares will be 97.47% higher year-on-year, the business promotion fees of Saiwei Times will increase by 132.09% year-on-year, the warehousing costs of Saiwei Times will also increase by 103.26% year-on-year, and the warehousing expenses of Huakai Yibai will soar by 153.04% in 2024 compared with 2023.
After all, the global cross-border e-commerce chain has long been overcrowded, looking at merchants alone, Amazon’s “2024 Global Store Opening White Paper” shows that sellers with sales of more than one million dollars have increased by as much as 55% within two years.
In short, cross-border business is not easy to do, and I hope that the domestic north and south markets can further form a new pattern of “differentiated competition and complementary development”, so that the entire track will not be left behind.
