The rise of short videos, the fragmentation of user attention, and the high risk of content creation…… These factors make the future of long videos uncertain. However, in this context, an innovative experiment on the integration of content, IP and platforms is quietly unfolding. Bubble Mart’s IP operation model, Douyin’s traffic distribution advantages, and the exploration of content streamlining and IP by long video platforms seem to be outlining a new development path for the future of long video.
Where is the liveliest place in 2025? It has to be the Internet circle.
The giants have entered a new stage of development and have begun a new round of burning money to grab entrances, the most typical of which is the AI model that burns money and does not make money.
In an instant, it seems to have returned to the era of melee more than ten years ago, when almost all models were burning money and not making money, but everyone had good expectations for the future.
Now that the pattern has been formed, the past model of burning money has formed its own unique competitive advantage sooner or later, and the giants have their own sides.
For example, WeChat QQ, which monopolizes social networking, Baidu, Meituan, which relies on takeaway to open up local life, short video platform “Douyin Kuaishou”, long video “Youaiteng” and so on.
These models are all “traffic acquisition – commercial monetization”, and after a long period of burning money, most of them have mastered the ability to make stable profits.
But we can see that in addition to long videos, the functionality of other traffic entrances is stronger than their content.
In other words, only video is a platform that generates content and simply provides users with emotional value.
But as the so-called dragon gives birth to nine sons, each has its own differences, when Douyin and Kuaishou make money, the back of the long video is a little lonely.
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Until the first quarter of this year, in Alibaba’s financial report, Youku announced its first profit, which was the first time in the nearly 20 years since Youku’s establishment. At the same time, Bilibili has achieved profitability for three consecutive quarters, plus iQiyi and Tencent Video, which have been profitable for three years.
At this moment, the long video has finally collectively crossed the threshold of profitability and is no longer a money shredder.
From the business model, the model of long videos is to either buy copyrights or produce their own, and finally produce episodes to attract users, and then monetize them through advertising and membership.
If you want to seek higher growth, you still have a long way to go.
In fact, it is very simple to think about it, the business model in the past is still not sexy enough.
The three mountains of the old era
In essence, long videos carry the time when users are idle and relaxed, and high-quality content will attract users to use, which is a tool for giants to grab users’ time.
Therefore, the user’s time is the key, we take the user’s time as a watershed, and the battlefield of long videos can be divided into two stages:
The first stage: the stage of plainization operations
Whether it is the PC Internet era or the TV era, the media is not developed enough compared with now, the pace of work is not as fast as it is now, and the user’s time is very concentrated.
At this time, the user market is like an unobstructed plain, eating, sleeping, watching TV, and watching dramas on the Internet is the norm, which is very suitable for heavy troops such as long videos to deploy and attack on a large area.
The content produced has almost no opponents,Because the audience has nowhere else to goAt this time, long videos are a natural good business, as long as you buy a hit, you can make money lying down.
For example, at that time, although LeTV’s other businesses were very tight and the founder also ran away, it was still very nourishing with the copyright of high-quality works such as “The Legend of Zhen Huan”.
In addition, compared with one or two episodes a day on TV, long videos can kill the whole piece of time, watch the whole drama in a day, and watch it back and watch it repeatedly.
However, with the rise of mobile Internet, the allocation of idle time for users has changed dramatically.
The second stage: geological movements change the battlefield topography
With the advancement of science and technology, the functions of mobile phones are becoming more and more powerful, and users can complete such a small square anytime and anywhere from life to entertainment.
The time of entertainment has also begun to change, and the battlefield at this moment has undergone fundamental changes.
For example, with the increasing power of mobile phone software and hardware functions, the exponential increase in the time of mobile games and short videos for users has begun to become fragmented, and the importance of long videos in users’ entertainment has decreased.
At this time, after experiencing strong geological movements, the battlefield was divided into mountainous forms,The market has entered a state of drama looking for people.
At this time, the “combat form” of the short video is very suitable for such a terrain, and it has become a guerrilla warfare for all people, everyone is a creator, the cycle is extremely short, and the content is also colorful.
The Hongguo short drama launched by Douyin in 23 years is the perfect “mountain expert”, the short video APP is responsible for distribution, and Hongguo is responsible for the categories of thousands of people.
The market has entered the stage of oversupply, on the one hand, the battlefield is divided, short videos are invaded, and on the other hand, there are not many good themes for long videos, weapons and equipment need to be updated, and the threshold of users is getting higher and higher.
In general, the battlefield of video is to rob users of the time, at this time, compared with the light travel of short videos, the shortcomings of long videos have been completely exposed.The long video is clunky, lengthy and incompatible with the complex battlefield.
In addition to the bulky mode, the long video is always a player dancing with shackles, which can be viewed from three aspects:
First, the domestic grading system is not perfect
To put it bluntly, it is one-size-fits-all, and the content themes that can be produced are greatly limited.
Whether it is a long video or a short video, in fact, it is essentially to make users feel good, get out of the heavy life, and immerse themselves in another world.
For example, the world-famous “Game of Thrones”, Taiwanese and Korean idol dramas, one is a novel otherworld, and the other is Mary Sue, which can be watched without a brain.
However, if you can only produce general content, the theme is very limited, and in QuestMobile’s survey data, urban themes account for more than half of the domestic drama content.
Second, high-quality traders are needed
Even if there is a good theme, a high-quality script, and a super IP, it needs to be able to land, just like good ingredients also need good chefs to make.There is no good cook, and high-end ingredients are not used.
For example, high-quality IPs such as “The Three-Body Problem”, whether it is a live-action series or animation, have not met users’ expectations.
Third, the risk is uncontrollable
For example, the scolded “Fengshen 2” and “Chang’an Lychee”, the difficult brothers, are not popular with the public, and now the female lead has an accident again, and the copyright may not be sold in the future.
To put it bluntly, the production of high-quality dramas is not a standardized process, and it is almost impossible to mass-produce high-quality content.
And its core competitiveness is high-quality dramas,In order to prevent risks, it is more necessary to go volume, so this business is the opposite of stinky tofu, smelling fragrant, eating smelly, it is not easy to operate, and it is difficult to reuse the successful experience of a single episode.
For example, iQiyi, although it has been profitable, has not stabilized.
Buffett said at the 1999 shareholders’ meeting“The moat is like a trench around the castle, the wider the better. What I need is the kind of business that even fools can run, because one day it will be run by fools. ”
Focusing on the point, if you want fools to operate, it is better to throw WeChat to you and me at this moment, and lying down every day to get a salary does not delay the operation of WeChat.
Another example is the business model of music, which happens to be the mirror of the long video business, from three aspects.
- No matter how many good songs there are, they are limited, as long as they can be received exclusively, the production process can be over, unlike long videos and non-standard production processes.
- Music can be listened to every day, and more importantly, no matter how old the song is, you will never get tired of listening to it, and all resources can be reused and sticky. And what film and television want is freshness, and old dramas will get tired of watching them a few times, and they need to be reproduced.
- The lyrics of music are also stories, which can be listened to and sung, providing users with more emotional value.
ThatThe current market value of Tencent Music Entertainment Group has even exceeded Baidu.
The long video business model has led to him not having the ability to “lie down and win” at all, and he needs to continue to evolve and work intensively to avoid being eliminated.
But just like Darwin’s theory of evolution, in the Internet industry, the business model of long video has not yet evolved to its final form.
The evolution of long videos: IP + Douyin
In another dimension, no matter how long or short, video is a product that is just needed and is difficult to replace, so it is the core to produce content that makes the audience feel happy.
This requires continuous good content, which can be viewed from two aspects.
1. Jump out of the long and short dispute
Just as “the old road can’t reach a new place”, from the perspective of the profit history of “Youaiteng”, it is also such an evolutionary road of magic defeating magic, and the popularity of short videos has promoted the evolution of long videos.
Under the education of short videos, long videos have also begun to reduce water, and episodes have begun to be streamlined.
According to a report released by Yunhe Data, the total number of new domestic dramas will be 7,610 episodes in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 14%.
Long video platforms have shortened the length of their episodes, iQiyi has launched an 8-episode mini-series “My Altay”, and Youku has also shortened the series to 12 episodes.
Some episodes were even cut as a whole, and the saved budget was invested in short dramas.
In February this year, at the China TV Drama Production Industry Conference, Tencent Video executives revealed that 10%-20% of the budget in the past project investment was inefficient investment, and this part of the investment would be cut off and invested in short dramas.
At the same time, the platform has launched its own short theater, iQIYI launched “micro theater” and “short theater” in September last year, and plans to change the iQIYI Express Edition to a micro-short drama APP this year. Youku renamed the “short video” channel to “short drama” and increased the priority of the entrance. Tencent Video launched 350 short dramas during this year’s Spring Festival.
After making up for the shortcomings, it’s time to spell out the content.
2. Content production is ultimately an IP business
The most typical IP business in recent years is Bubble Mart.
Putting aside the current popularity, Bubble Mart’s original design was to rely on its unique IP operation design to avoid the risk of a short average popularity cycle of trendy play IP.
Specifically, exclusive IP: sign 350+ designers around the world, sign 5-10 year agreements, such as the Labubu series, designers share the sales share; Non-exclusive IP (accounting for 20%): Co-branded mature IPs such as Disney and Hello Kitty, which quickly drain traffic but pay high licensing fees (about 15% of sales).
The Tianyancha APP shows that its operating data continues to maintain a high growth state.
Long videos should also have this kind of thinking.
Different age groups have their own white moonlight, such as the martial arts novels loved by the post-80s, and the post-90s are the world of online literature, such as the three young masters of the Tang family, Tiancang potatoes and other writers have begun to emerge.
Therefore, content production is essentially the same as Bubble Mart, good IP and good scripts are hard to come by, but in the face of firepower, all ghosts and gods dissipate.
For example, if you have the exclusive signing rights of 20-year-old Jin Yong, Liang Yusheng, and Gu Long at the same time, are you afraid that you won’t be able to produce good content?
From the perspective of output and reserves, Tencent and Douyin hold the future in their hands.
The largest IP ammunition warehouse on the whole network China Literature Group covers more than 70% of the online IP of the whole network, including “Qing Yu Nian”, “Son-in-law”, “General Poison Queen” and other head works, as long as profits can be reasonably distributed, long-term peace and stability is not a problem.
Douyin’s red fruit can quickly produce short dramas, relying on the IP gunpowder keg of tomato novels, plus the short drama requirements are not high, and the whole process from script to launch can be completed in 3 days, and directly monetized in batches.
In terms of data, in 2024, the production capacity of short dramas will be crushed: Hongguo will launch more than 15,000 short dramas, with a monthly update volume of 1,000+, far exceeding the annual total of long video platforms, and a total of 1,427 Youai Tengmang will be launched in 2024.
Although iQIYI has been promoting its AI assistant, that is, AI to create content in batches, one is that AI can only be used as a means of production, which can speed up the efficiency of creation.
But in normal cognition, real emotions still come from people.The content still needs someone to inject their own subjective emotions to have a soul, otherwise there will be a sense of patchwork.So if it’s just the optimization of tools, Tencent and Douyin, which have many creators, seem to be the ones who benefit more.
In general, it can be seen that after changing thinking and owning IP resources, the business model of the entire long video industry has undergone tremendous changes, and the shadow of the content industry assembly line can be faintly seen.
After simplification, it is: back-end generation of IP-mass production-terminal super APP distribution, which is the most advanced way to play at present.
Just as “it is not another lion that defeats the lion, but the shotgun”, in the new stage after profit,Through the integration of “short thinking + IP thinking”, long videos have become lighter, faster and cooler on the basis of the past.
Perhaps in the near future, we can see a new growth in long videos.
